Northern Virginia has more homes for sale than it has had in years, but fewer of them are selling. The latest numbers from the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® (NVAR) show September closed sales down 7.5% while active listings jumped 30.7%. Here is what changed, and what it means if you are buying or selling this fall.
September 2026 at a glance
- Closed sales: 1,250, down 7.5% from September 2025
- Median sold price: $744,950, up 4.2%
- Active listings: 3,477, up 30.7%
- Months of supply: 2.5, up from about 1.9 a year ago
- Average days on market: 28, unchanged
- Pending sales: 1,204, down 16.2%
Source: NVAR Market Statistics, September 2026.
Looking back five years, the median sold price in September has risen from about $619,000 in 2022 to $744,950 this year, roughly 20% higher. Closed sales tell a different story: about 1,250 homes sold this September, still about 13% below the 1,442 sold in 2022. Prices have climbed while fewer homes change hands, which is what higher mortgage rates and tight affordability tend to produce.
More homes, but not more sales
Extra inventory usually means lower prices. That is not what happened here. Prices are still rising, and pending sales (a preview of the next month’s closings) fell more than 16%. Buyers have more choices, but affordability is holding many of them back. NVAR’s CEO made the same point: more listings do not automatically make homeownership more attainable, especially for first-time buyers.
The new supply is uneven. Condo and townhome listings rose about 50% year over year, while detached-home listings rose only about 6%. If you want a single-family home, competition is still real. If you are open to a condo or townhome, you have noticeably more room to negotiate.
Loudoun County: slower, with more choice
Loudoun saw the sharpest slowdown. Closed sales fell 17.8% to 338, active listings rose 34.1%, and homes took 31 days on average to sell, up about 7%. The median price still edged up to $758,500. If you are considering Ashburn or nearby communities, see my Ashburn buying guide.
Mortgage rates are the real story
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at about 7.4% in mid-October, up from roughly 6.9% in September and 6.35% a year ago. Nationally, the National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million annual pace, still among the slowest months of the year. The national median price was $417,500, up 1.3%, the 39th straight month of annual gains. Chief economist Lawrence Yun noted that rising rates mean fewer buyers can qualify.
Sources: Mortgage News Daily on the NAR September report. For more on how rates move local demand, read How Interest Rates Affect the Northern Virginia Housing Market.
What this means for buyers
- You have leverage you did not have last year. More listings and longer days on market mean room to ask for repairs, credits or a rate buydown.
- Price the payment, not just the home. At 7.4%, a few thousand dollars off the price changes your monthly cost less than a seller-paid buydown can.
- Get pre-approved first. Rates move weekly, so lock in a plan with a lender before you tour.
- Consider condos and townhomes. That is where supply has grown most.
New to the process? Start with 7 mistakes first-time buyers make in Northern Virginia.
What this means for sellers
- Price it right the first time. With buyers comparing more listings, an overpriced home sits and then gets cut.
- Presentation matters more. Staging, photos and small repairs separate the homes that sell in 28 days from those that sit.
- Be ready to help the buyer. Concessions toward closing costs or a rate buydown are working in this market.
Prices are still up year over year, so this is not a bad time to sell. Use my free home value estimate to see where your home stands, or read how to prepare your home for sale.
My take
This is a market shifting toward balance, but only slowly. At 2.5 months of supply it still favors sellers overall, though less than a year ago. The deciding factor for the next few months will be mortgage rates. Any drop would likely bring buyers back quickly into a market that now has more homes for them to choose from.
Thinking about buying or selling in Northern Virginia? Contact me for a plan based on your neighborhood and budget. For the bigger picture, see the Northern Virginia housing market 2026 forecast.
Data sources: NVAR, NAR and Freddie Mac. Figures are for September 2026 unless noted and may be revised. This is general information, not financial advice.